Championship Week!

Not many games but high on QUALITY.  This has been a more chaotic year than normal and 2007 is the best comparison when 2 loss LSU won the national title.  Everybody has weaknesses.

Vegas favorite is coin heads for neutral site games

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

Weekend of 12/2/17 game lines as of Wednesday 11/29 1pm EST:

 

• Ohio State vs Wisconsin +7

Prediction: Wisconsin 34 Ohio State 27

Sagarin: Wisconsin by 5

Coin: Wisconsin

Wisconsin 3 (40,1) has the most efficient defense in the nation.  Ohio State is potentially explosive 1 (5,12) but has been inconsistent and unable to fully take advantage of its talent.  Against good defensive teams (top 20) Ohio state had mixed results.  Iowa crushed them, and they struggled against Michigan, but at home they crushed Michigan State and would have beaten Penn State much worse if not for 200 return yards and penalties penalties.  J.T. Barrett is probable so I assume he will play.  Is the old Wisconsin narrative true; speed and superior talent beats them?  I have a feeling it is different this time and this Wisconsin team wants to prove it.  Give me the Badgers by 7, which is a nice cushion on this positive line.

 

• Georgia vs Auburn -2.5

Prediction: Auburn 28 UGA 21

Sagarin: even (UGA by 0.15)

Coin: Auburn

UGA really wants this rematch after getting blasted 40-17 by Auburn.  Auburn is wounded on offense after the Bama game.  They will have to find somebody at rb since Kerryon Johnson is not at full strength, Pettway is still hurt and there are other backup injuries.  The Auburn defense is still feeling excellent though.  UGA needs a more mobile qb to better stretch this defense.  They will have to avoid 3rd and long.  In the first meeting they just looked like the perfect offense for this Auburn D to shutdown, although they did have a few blown opportunities and drops.  UGA Losing by 23 on the road = losing by about 7 in a neutral rematch.  AUBURN

 

• TCU vs Oklahoma – 7.5

Prediction: Oklahoma 45 TCU 35

Sagarin: OU by 7

Coin: TCU

The unstoppable OU 9 (1,100) offense keeps chugging on.  They are the most unbalanced team ever in playoff contention but most teams just cannot get enough stops to beat them.  I picked TCU to be able to slow them down enough to cover (but lose) in the first meeting.  WRONG.  So following the logic above; losing by 18 on the road the first time = losing by about 5-6 points at a neutral site in a rematch.  Gary Patterson will be cooking up a devious plan to stop OU but I just don’t see it happening.  I dislike that -7.5 line but OU has more motivation so I will take it.  If OU wins I think they really win unless they are up 14 and allow a late TD and TCU backdoor cover.   

 

• Miami vs Clemson -10

Prediction: Clemson 34 Miami 14

Sagarin: Clemson by 8

Coin: Clemson

I have been picking against Miami all year, since they seemed to squeak by so many average or bad teams.  Then Pitt happened and it all started to make sense.  Miami 12 (25,19) is a good team with a thin margin for error.  They are not an elite or a playoff caliber team and that should be evident again in this game.  Clemson 10 (35,3) is starting to roll and I think they win comfortably in this one.

 

• Stanford +4 vs USC

Prediction: USC 34 Stanford 31

Sagarin: Stanford by 1

Coin: USC

Stanford 27 (33,51) is a much better team than the September version that lost by 18 to USC 19 (16,56).  USC narrowly lost to Washington State and was thrashed by Notre Dame and gave up 160 yards to Bryce Love last time.  They were able to shred the cardinal D in the first meeting.  Those Stanford guys are smart, so I think they will learn from their mistakes and keep this game close.

 

• Memphis at UCF – 7.5

Prediction: UCF 51 Memphis 41

Sagarin: UCF by 11

Coin: Memphis

UCF 8 (2,66) won 40-13 in the first game.  Memphis 17 (4,94) has been on fire lately and UCF has started to undergo some wear and tear late in the season.  UCF finally played a good defense last week and beat USF in the best game of the year.  With these offenses and suspect defenses, expect a high scoring game (over is 82) and Memphis to stay with the Knights this time.  This is another -7.5 line that is suspicious.  I will take UCF at home to continue their dream season and win by 10.    

 

• North Texas at FAU -11

Prediction: FAU 52 UNT 32

Sagarin: FAU by 9

Coin: North Texas

FAU won the first game 69 – 31!  It seems like an 11 point cover in the second meeting is doable.

 

• Akron vs Toledo – 21.5

Prediction: Toledo 45 Akron 28

Sagarin: Toledo by 14

Coin: Toledo

Toledo won the first game 48 – 21.  Can they beat Akron by 21.5?  This sounds a tad high so I will go with Akron to cover.         

 

• Fresno State +8.5 at Boise State

Prediction: Boise 27 Fresno 24

Sagarin:  Boise by 5

Coin:  Boise

College football has gone rematch crazy.  These 2 teams played last week!  Now they are playing in Boise so the broncos are 8.5 favorites?  The blue turf is a tough venue to win but I will take a Fresno team that won 28-17 last week to stay within 8.5

Be sure to keep your eye out for our weekly blog with Dr. Senkbeil’s picks every Thursday. Challenge your college buddies and coworkers on your Alma Mater’s game and raise money for charity in the process! Don’t have the GoodBookey app? Download it below. Talk some smack and give back!