Week 12: Read this and go to Vegas

There were ten potential upsets last week, but as expected only one hit. Wake somehow managed to beat NC State on the road. Most of the participants hit one to two 200 point values mixed with a few 100 pointers producing very modest scores last week. This week is the calm week before rivalry showdown weekend next week. That means we have several opportunities to break the 2875 point upset record when Old Dominion beat Va Tech.

There are several juicy even odds games

Upsets?  This week looks bleak for the upsets   There won’t be a lot of discussion on these extremely low odds upsets.

Boise at New Mexico 950:  Boise is nasty at home but on the road they are beatable. New Mexico is very weak so it looks very doubtful.

Utah State at Colorado State 2100: Utah State is 9-1 with their only loss on opening weekend just barely at Michigan State. Their statistical profile is very similar to Washington State, which means that Utah State might be able to win the Pac12. Colorado State is just as bad as New Mexico.

UMESS 45100 at Georgia: Ahh Let’s get nuts. Swords for 45,000.

Arkansas 900 at Mississippi State: The Hogs made a late charge at home to keep the game interesting vs LSU. They just are not very good. Will State throw a pass? Will they call anything except QB runs? It probably will not matter.

Middle Tennessee 550 at Kentucky:  Ok this one might require more thought. Kentucky has lost 2 straight and their swagger.  They are an excellent defensive team with a sluggish offense. They overachieved all year.  What are they playing for now at 7-3?  Belk Bowl or Gator Bowl?  Does it really matter? MTSU (92,48) is kind of like Conf USA Kentucky. It should be lower scoring but going with MTSU is a reach.

Rice 50000 at LSU: Rice is awful. Awful. 129/130 teams

Idaho 15000 at Florida: The Vandals are now an FCS team. Maybe the Gators can get behind by 20 and wake up again and score 70 unanswered?

Indiana 3100 at Michigan: The Wolverines might be looking ahead? Indiana just does not have enough.

Oregon State 6100 at Washington: The Beavers are ranked 124th in efficiency.

Ohio State at Maryland 750:  Two teams going in different directions. The Buckeyes looked good again last week.

Duke 2900 at Clemson: Duke is well coached and I think will play Clemson closer than many people think. The talent gap is immense.

Rutgers 2600 at Penn State: No.

Kansas at Oklahoma: No.

Even Odds Battles  

Seven games under 300 point differences that will most likely crown the winner for this week.

Syracuse 390 vs Notre Dame 129 at Yankee Stadium:  Look away when Notre Dame takes the field. Pinstripes! The Irish are a good team but I don’t want to watch them get curb stomped in the playoff. Syracuse has only lost to half strength Clemson and inconsistent Pitt.  Statistically (39,68) they don’t look impressive besides their number one special teams units. Every week I keep picking against ND and I have been wrong. ND is the better team.

Iowa State 235 at Texas 165: Every week Texas is involved in a close game. Iowa State is pretty good and they have won six in a row. This should be entertaining and a coin flip.

West Virginia 148 at Oklahoma State 275: West Virginia was fortunate to escape Texas two weeks ago with a one-point win. Oklahoma State was unfortunate last week and should have beaten Oklahoma. Karma is telling me the home team is due.  Two explosive offenses in this one.

Cincinnati 335 at UCF 132:  UCF has looked wounded but has managed to keep on winning. Cincinnati (75,19) is a good defensive team. Is this finally the end of the undefeated streak for UCF. At home?  These guys just win.

Arizona 420 at Washington State 125: Wazzu just keeps on chugging. They have also been a popular upset pick each week. Arizona has Khalil Tate healthy and I keep thinking he will have an eruption. The guy is explosive and Arizona is on a two-game winning streak. So far they have not been a good road team.

Northwestern 163 at Minnesota 240:  Northwestern clinched the Big Ten West last week even though they were winless out of conference. Great, now what else do you have to play for?  Minnesota somehow crushed Purdue. Where did that come from? I have no idea what to say about this game.  I bet NW wins on a late field goal bc it is their year.

Utah 137 at Colorado 335: Colorado has lost six straight. Utah (34,24) is a pretty good team, but the last time I picked them it bit me.